Up to no good: A son of Into Mischief will win the 147th Kentucky Derby
The 147th edition of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve returns to its traditional first-Saturday-in-May appointment later this weekend, just eight months since a global pandemic postponed the 146th running to a late summer Saturday at fabled Churchill Downs.
Of course, on that first weekend in September, we witnessed Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez overcome a poor break from the 18th stall to deftly steer Authentic to a lead he wouldn’t relinquish, even while post-time favorite Tiz the Law battled him nearly stride for stride in a grueling stretch run.
Without question, TIz’s jockey Manny Franco provided him with a trip for which he was already well-conditioned. That is, using an opportunistic stalking position by rating the leader two-to-three wide and then setting him down to pounce with 3/16 mile left.
But in retrospect, two specific factors seem to have rebuffed his chances. First, Tiz appeared to be swimming on the fast track at Churchill, never really finding his best footing in that stretch drive as Authentic gamely dug in.
That, and Velazquez.
Manny Franco is a rising star in the game, no question about it. But Johnny V was arguably the difference for Authentic that day. That was an authentic Hall of Fame jockey’s performance.
As I handicap this year’s 3yo field for the Derby, I can’t help but envision yet another vintage ride from an HoF jockey.
My Prep Season Observations:
Of the Super Six Prep races for the Kentucky Derby—the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park, the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Ground Race Course, the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct—I have typically put far more weight on the outcomes of the first three.
Sure enough, every winner of the Kentucky Derby since 2012 has emerged from either the Santa Anita Derby, the Florida Derby, or the Arkansas Derby (and yes, I’m including Maximum Security, who would ultimately be disqualified to 17th for interference back in 2019. But he was still the best horse that day and, for me, the true winner).
So with that said, who won the Grade 1 Super Six preps this year, and where do they break come Saturday?
2021 Florida Derby champion— Known Agenda (Post 1). The St. Elias Stable colt is trained by Todd Pletcher and will have Irad Ortiz retain the mount from the Florida Derby win.
2021 Santa Anita Derby champion— Rock Your World (Post 15). Hronis Racing and trainer John Sadler will tab jockey Joel Rosario to take over the reins for this son of Candy Ride.
2021 Arkansas Derby champion— Super Stock (Post 18). Of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen’s dual entries, this one likely has more sentimental value as his father, Keith Asmussen, is part of the ownership group. Jockey Ricardo Santana keeps the mount coming off the emphatic win on April 10.
Each of these runners is certainly viable on your ticket, for varying reasons. But each also presents a red flag or two. More on that to follow.
Another interesting takeaway from these Super Six preps is the comparison of the races’ opening fractions versus their final race times [Note: only the Louisiana Derby isn’t raced at 9 furlongs, which is an eighth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. Instead, the LA Derby is raced at the Preakness Stakes distance of 9 1/2 furlongs (1 3/16 mile)].
Opening Fractions (1/2 mile and 3/4 mile times):
Louisiana Derby :47.04 , 1:11.25 | Florida Derby :47.73 , 1:12.29 | Arkansas Derby :46.51 , 1:11.25 | Blue Grass Stakes :48.21 , 1:12.08 | Santa Anita Derby :46.11 , 1:10.64 | Wood Memorial :50.18 , 1:14.98
From a pace perspective, the Santa Anita Derby was the fastest followed by the Arkansas Derby.
But then take a look at these final times…
Louisiana Derby 1:55.06 | Florida Derby 1:49.45 | Arkansas Derby 1:50.92 | Blue Grass Stakes 1:48.50 | Santa Anita Derby 1:49.17 | Wood Memorial 1:54.59
In terms of this measurement, the Blue Grass Stakes was the fastest of these prep races, followed closely by the Louisiana Derby (after time adjustments based on the added distance).
Interestingly, the Kentucky Derby’s morning line (ML) favorite is Essential Quality at 2-1 odds. He was the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes.
My Early Notes (before final jockey assignments and Tuesday’s post draw):
“Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie could easily wire the field, especially if Joel Rosario retains the mount.”
As noted above, Rosario gets Rock Your World instead, leaving HRC with Flavien Prat aboard. Prat is a solid jockey who regularly dominates the Southern California racing circuit but—even with an advantageous break from Post 9—I can’t see Charlie benefitting from the switch. My take: he’ll be sent for early speed and may hold on for a minor placing.
“Just like in 2019—when he was in the irons for Maximum Security—Luis Saez will have the presumed favorite with Essential Quality. This colt had a gutsy trip last out in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, stalking Chad Brown-trainee Highly Motivated for nearly the entire 9 furlongs before setting him down in an exhilarating stretch drive. But did that trip expose his best effort?”
I stand by my question. But I’ve become keener on Essential Quality’s performance last out, especially when considering he got significantly faster in the closing half-mile. My take: he’ll be just fine with the added distance and should still have plenty left in the tank for a run at the top spot.
“Conversely, is Highly Motivated being overlooked in this edition of the Run for the Roses? Clearly, he was the one to catch in the Blue Grass but if expected rider Javier Castellano—one of the best back-of-pack jockeys in the game—saves his obvious speed for a late run, he could be the elementary wise guy’s choice.”
Tuesday’s draw of Post 17 for this colt—the only post position never to produce a Derby winner—felt like kryptonite for his prospects. But the outside break actually sets up well for Castellano to bottle up some of that early speed he flashed in the Blue Grass for a closing kick he’ll need to surpass some of the other contenders. My take: like Essential Quality, he got faster in the later stages of the Blue Grass, so the added distance won’t be a problem. He’ll finish in the money. Bold take: 2017 Racing Hall of Fame inductee Castellano wins his first-ever Kentucky Derby, fittingly reversing the curse of Post 17.
My Quick Takes (since Tuesday’s post draw):
Known Agenda (6-1 odds) sat mid-pack on the rail for much of the Florida Derby before jockey Irad Ortiz sent him outside to gobble up the leaders in the stretch. It was a wise move, considering he draws the rail post here. Still, I can’t place him any higher than third on Saturday.
O Besos (20-1) loves to rattle down the stretch late, as he has done in two career wins and a third-place finish last out in the Louisiana Derby. If he can avoid taking too much money before Saturday evening, he might be the best value play in your exotics wager.
Mandaloun (15-1) keeps the only jockey who has ever ridden him, Florent Geroux, for this trip. But frankly, this Brad Cox trainee is overmatched for this field. He faded last out in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. Added distance ensures he’ll be nowhere near the front at the end. Cox’s best bet—and yours—is Essential Quality.
Medina Spirit (15-1) never really looked like he would prevail in the Santa Anita Derby, despite finishing second. That’s partly because of how dominantly Rock Your World ran. And even though Bob Baffert always has his runners ready to fire—and add a nod with John Velazquez aboard—I won’t be making any big plans for him on my ticket.
Midnight Bourbon (20-1) is my dark horse choice. While everyone will be focused on Super Stock for trainer Steve Asmussen, I believe they’ll be overlooking his other runner at their own peril.
Dynamic One (20-1) couldn’t even win the incredibly slow Wood Memorial over Bourbonic, whose own prospects will be stunted by drawing Post 20. It will take a miracle for accomplished rider Jose Ortiz to lead this son of Union Rags to Derby riches.
Rock Your World (5-1) absolutely deserves all the attention he’s getting as the ML’s second choice. He blistered the field in the Santa Anita Derby and should be sent to the front again in here. My only pause is the jockey switch from Umberto Rispoli— who has won aboard him in two of his 3-lifetime starts—back to Joel Rosario. Still, contrary to my belief that the switch from Rosario-to-Prat is probably a detriment to Hot Rod Charlie, I think the switch from Rispoli-to-Rosario for Rock Your World could be a potential upgrade.
King Fury’s (20-1) morning drill on April 24 has caught the attention of one analyst, I think the stretch out to a mile and a quarter will be too much for the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes winner. He’s only raced at distances of a mile and 1/16th. And that Lexington win was on an off-track. Adding distance and stepping up in class makes for a hard pass.
Super Stock (30-1) was certainly tremendous in his Arkansas Derby win. But looking at his Equibase speed figures, there’s a glaring disparity for me. Whereas he earned a 106 in winning the AR Derby, his previous race in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes had him with a then-best 95 figure. That’s quite the jump, likely bolstered by the hot pace he was chasing in Hot Springs. If Rock Your World and Hot Rod Charlie get in a speed duel early on, maybe he’s got a similar pace to run after here. But I have my doubts whether he can still prevail, with some of the others who will also welcome such a pursuit.
Soup and Sandwich (30-1) comfortably rated on the lead, at middling fractions, for much of the Florida Derby. But when he needed a kick the most, it was not to be found. Too many others can match him down the lane.
My Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve Wager Strategy (Budget: $50)
$1 Exacta:
(14) Essential Quality, (15) Rock Your World, (17) Highly Motivated w/ (9) Hot Rod Charlie, (10) Midnight Bourbon, (14), (15), and (17) [$15 wager]
$5 Win, Place, Show:
(17) Highly Motivated [$15 wager]:
$20 Place:
(10) Midnight Bourbon [$20 wager]
May all runners and riders make safe passage.